All posts by Gerhard_Mangott

splinter-series: battles are on…

September 21, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 3 Comments

The 'splinter-series' provides brief remarks on ongoing events, whereas blog entries are in-depth analyses:

The Russian Constitution has been violated: The Constitution demands an anointed Head of Government to present the line-up of his ministerial team no later than 7 days after his approval by the State Duma. Zubkov has failed to deliver. This is significant not for ignoring a constitutional provision but indicative of serious infights between the two camps within the presidential team on who controls which ministry.

it is surprising how long it takes … Continue Reading ››

US Leadership

Funktionalisierung der Shoah

September 13, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 7 Comments

John Mearsheimer und Stephen Walt haben in ihrem viel beachteten, wenn auch umstrittenen Buch ‚The Israel Lobby‘ (2007) deutlich gemacht, wie sehr jüdische Interessenverbände, allen voran das American-Israel Public Affairs Commitee (AIPAC), die Außenpolitik der USA zu beeinflussen vermögen. Dieses Lager sei imstande, strategische Entscheidungen der USA im Nahen und Mittleren Osten zu erwirken, die Staats- und Sicherheitsinteressen Israels dienlich sind, aber zentrale Interessen der USA verletzten. Das nationale Interesse der USA werde dadurch in Geiselhaft der Interessen Israels genommen. Mearsheimer und Walt sind – dies gilt es zu beachten – … Continue Reading ››

Russia

Decision Postponed

September 13, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 3 Comments

It was utterly clear that Vladimir Putin was not to seek a third term almost two years ago. Sources close to him already then stated that he actually was ‘tired’ with this job and was looking for some other office with somewhat more behind the scenes authority and influence. It is argued by these sources that he might return back to the Kremlin at a later stage but that this was not yet decided.

Putin more than once made it clear that he is firmly commited to resign … Continue Reading ››

Rüstung-Proliferation

Raketenabwehr. Quergedanken

August 31, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 1 Comment

...written together with my colleague Martin Senn, a specialist on arms control.

Die Schelte war deutlich – in den USA wie in Tschechien. Das Wort von Darabos zur Errichtung von Raketenabwehrkomponenten (MD) im östlichen Europa als einen ‚provokativen Akt’ erregte die Gemüter. Kaum zurecht aber, denn die MD-Vorhaben der USA kommen tatsächlich einer Provokation gleich – als militärisch-technische Gefährdung der nuklearen Schlagkraft Russlands, als ein Akt, der russländische Grossmachtsensibilitäten berührt und damit euroatlantischen Beziehungen mit Russland zusätzlich belastet. Die Stationierung von Abfangraketen in Polen und eines hochleistungsfähigen X-Band Radars … Continue Reading ››

Energy Security

Nabucco turning blue …

August 19, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 2 Comments

Gazprom has offered Austrian oil and gas company OMV access to its South Stream project. This is a further step in Gazprom's aim to build an additional pipeline alternative to its core pipeline routes via Ukraine and Belarus; it is the southern equivalent to the North Stream pipeline linking Vyborg to Greifswald (Germany).

OMV’s response may be a crucial not so much regarding the eventual route of a new pipeline, construction costs and length, but in terms of gas supplier countries. Nabucco – put forward in 2002 and … Continue Reading ››

Miscellaneous

The Irrelevance of International Law

July 20, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott Leave a comment

As a structural realist I am not at all surprised about the shallowness of international legal norms. I am, therefore, not apalled about the recent developments around Kosovo, but rather amused. Kosovo is legally speaking part of the Serbian state, which as such is a fully recognized member of the United Nations. Her territorial integrity ought to be protected by international law. The United Nations is not authorized under any clause of its Charter to support the secession of any entity of Serbia, let alone promote it. Resolution 1244 (1999) … Continue Reading ››

Rüstung-Proliferation

Der Zusammenbruch der Rüstungskontrolle

July 15, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 1 Comment

Die – rechtlich an sich nicht vorgesehene – Aussetzung des KSE-Vertrages aus 1990 (A-KSE 1999) durch Russland ist ein weiterer Akt der Aushöhlung der vertraglich geregelten Rüstungskontrolle, nicht aber deren Beginn. Die mühsam, in zähen und langwierigen Verhandlungen erzielten, Rüstungskontroll- und Abrüstungsabkommen der vergangenen vier Jahrzehnte brechen schrittweise in sich zusammen.

Der ABM-Vertrag aus 1972, der die USA und die UdSSR daran hinderte, durch flächendeckende Raketenabwehrsysteme die gesicherte Zweitschlagsfähigkeit der anderen Vertragspartei (Mutual Assured Destruction, MAD-Logik) zunichte zu machen, wurde 2001 durch die Bush-43 Administration gekündigt. Nachdem Revisionsverhandlungen … Continue Reading ››

Russia

Monopoly on Truth…

July 5, 2007 Gerhard_Mangott 3 Comments

Let me use this blog to complain about the increasingly hostile attitude of the European and US media (and publics) to impartial research on Russia. Current russophobia andRussiabashing in western media makes it increasingly difficult to get the results of serious research onRussiaheard. This is not to complain about lacking access to the media and public visibility; actually it is not a real problem to get your views noticed, but they are immediately denounced as pro-Kremlin and pushed aside; furthermore a lack of visibility would not suffice to write this … Continue Reading ››