Medvedev has announced to deploy Iskander (Искандер-М) short-range missiles in Kaliningrad. The purpose of these missiles is to target the BMD interceptors to be stationed in Poland based on a Polish-US agreement signed back in August (which has not yet been ratified, however). Die 9M72-Missile (NATO-Designation SS-26 Stone) is a powerful, solid fuel propelled short-range surface-to-surface missile, land-mobile with MAZ-543 trucks (with 2 Iskander missiles deployed on a truck) and can be fired quite fast (less than 8 minutes after warning). The missile’s … Continue Reading ››

Interim O.S.C.E. briefings in August and October 2008 have revealed that Georgian heavy artillery shelling of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali starting at 11:30 p.m was indiscriminate. The O.S.C.E. observes including Polish, Belorussian and Finnish members, disputed the Georgian governments claim, that Georgia both responded to heavy separatist shelling of Georgian villages and conducted targeted attacks on Tskhinvali locations. Former British Army Captain Ryan Grist, head of the O.S.C.E. mission in Georgia reported: 'It was clear to me that the attack was completely indiscriminate and disproportionate to any, if indeed there had … Continue Reading ››

It is up to 60 billion dollars of foreign capital Russia has lost since August. Russia’s hard currency and gold reserves have slipped for the last 6 weeks down 65 billion. A further meltdown of its currency reserves could have a negative effect on Russia’s credit rating (which currently stands at BBB+). Russian companies and banks which are heavily indebted to western banks – total sovereign corporate debt is about 480 Bln. USD – suffer from a serious liquidity crunch. In the 4th quarter … Continue Reading ››

... As I had predicted already on September, 8th, the conference about a peace settlement for Georgia - mediated by Sarkozy and Medvedev on that very day - has failed. The meeting was just now cancelled. The meeting, if it will happen at all, will be organised only at technical levels. It remains to be seen, whether the cancellation by the EU will have an impact on the restart of EU-Russia negotiations on a new bilateral framework agreement.

... Russian foreign minister Lavrov has announced, Russia will guarantee that … Continue Reading ››

Once more an opposition-minded journalist and political activist was killed in Russia. Magomed Evloev who was arrested yesterday by Ingushetian police died hours later by a shot in his head. Authorities still claim that it his death was accidental, but this version is hardly credible. Evloyev ran the website www.ingushetiya.ru. In his most recent camapign against the authorities, Evloyev tried to unveil electoral fraud in the State Duma elections in Ingushetiya in December 2007. He questioned the official voter turnout and had been collecting signatures of those who had not taken part … Continue Reading ››

In der Georgienkrise wird von allen beteiligten Akteuren das Völkerrecht bemüht. Die Vorstellung aber, Rechtsnormen wären zwingende Handlungskorridore für Staaten ist höchst anfechtbar. Rechtsnormen sind das Ergebnis machtpolitischer Interessen starker Staaten; schwache Staaten ziehen daraus Schutz, (militärisch) starken Staaten dienen Normen dazu, Legitimität für das eigene Handeln bereitzustellen. Im Kern der äußeren Souveränität von Staaten – der militärischen Sicherheit – aber, ist die Rechtsbeugung durch starke Staaten immer dann gegeben, wenn vitale Interessen durch Rechtsnormen beschädigt werden.

Die Zuflucht zu subtilsten legalistischen Begründungen hat sowohl in der Frage der staatlichen Selbständigkeit des Kosovo als auch Abchasiens den … Continue Reading ››

... Finally, major western media report on the reckless  and insdiscriminate assault of the Georgian forces on Tskhinval duing the night August 7th, their deliberate attacks on Russian peace-keeping soldiers with tanks and heavy artillery and war crimes. OSCE observer's reports are now being leaked to the press. This was known from the very early hours of this crisis, but was ignored by most western media and politicians. What strikes me most with this crisis is either disastrous ignorance or, more likely, partisan interpretation by our diplomatic and political elites and a … Continue Reading ››

Die Anerkennung der Unabhängigkeit Abchasiens und Südossetiens durch Russland ist überraschend. Natürlich war sie von der russischen Führung mehrfach angedroht worden, doch wurde kaum erwartet, dass es dazu kommen würde. Zum einen ist unklar, worin der Mehrwert der formalen Unabhängigkeit dieser Regionen für Russland liegt. Beide Regionen waren unter russländischer Kontrolle, wirtschaftlich völlig von Russland abhängig und den geostrategischen Interessen Russlands im Kaukasus auch ohne formale Anerkennung ausreichend nützlich. Nunmehr wird Russland erklären müssen, warum es im Fall Abchasiens und Südossetiens das Recht auf Sezession unterstützt, den Kosovaren aber vorenthält.

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